Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
